The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions

The terms nested sets, partitive frequencies, inside-outside view, and dual processes add little but confusion to our original analysis (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage 1995; 1999). The idea of nested set was introduced because of an oversight; it simply rephrases two of our equations. Representation in terms of chances, in contrast, is a novel contribution yet consistent with our computational analysis - it uses exactly the same numbers as natural frequencies. We show that non-Bayesian reasoning in children, laypeople, and physicians follows multiple rules rather than a general-purpose associative process in a vaguely specified "System 1.” It is unclear what the theory in "dual process theory” is: Unless the two processes are defined, this distinction can account post hoc for almost everything. In contrast, an ecological view of cognition helps to explain how insight is elicited from the outside (the external representation of information) and, more generally, how cognitive strategies match with environmental structure

From washing hands to washing consciences and polishing reputations

While Lee and Schwartz (in press) propose grounded procedures of separation as an explanation for physical cleansing in various domains (e.g., washing one’s hands), we suggest that separation can also account for behavioral cleansing aimed at washing consciences and polishing reputations. We discuss this extension in terms of degrees of behavioral cleansing, motivations and intentions behind cleansing, and social settings

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory?

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architecture

Chapter 18 The winds of change

The ongoing process of digitalization seems to be changing our world dramatically. While many of these changes might lead to improvements for human well-being, others might entail profoundly disastrous consequences both for individuals and for societies as a whole. One research program that might be particularly suitable for studying environmental changes is the fast-and-frugal heuristics framework. This theoretical framework adopts an ecological perspective on human behavior, cognition, and performance. In an uncertain world, humans, so the argument goes, can adaptively respond to environmental demands by relying on a repertoire of simple decision strategies, called heuristics. Selecting heuristics that fit the environment results in adaptive behavior. This chapter focuses on the possible negative aspects of digitalization to discuss how the science of heuristic decision making under uncertainty might aid reflection on how individuals navigate their way through sudden, disruptive, and thorough environmental changes. Specifically, it sketches out what aversive future digital environments might look like, and which heuristics individuals and societies might rely upon in order to manage those aversive environments. The chapter concludes by (1) pointing to a series of research questions about how digital environments might differ from other environments that we humans have encountered both in our more recent history and over the course of our evolution, as well as (2) turning to questions about children and education

Ethical Blindness

Many models of (un)ethical decision making assume that people decide rationally and are in principle able to evaluate their decisions from a moral point of view. However, people might behave unethically without being aware of it. They are ethically blind. Adopting a sensemaking approach, we argue that ethical blindness results from a complex interplay between individual sensemaking activities and context factor

From representation via planning to action: an extension of Egon Brunswik's Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism

Scholz (in press) proposes how Brunswik’s lens model can be extended to account for planning of sustainable transitions of complex system. In this commentary, an alternative extension is proposed, according to which planning is seen as a process that unfolds in three steps. The first step can be understood with a model construction lens: A planning team builds a representation, that is, a model of a (distal) complex system. In a second step, modeled with a planning lens, the team contrasts its representation of the system with possible alternative states, and simulates how the is-state could be transformed into an ought-state. In a third step, modeled with an implementation lens, the team selects and implements a set of actions, thereby leaving the “imaginary space” (Konrad Lorenz) and entering the real world